How long it will take to defeat corona- Lockdown

India has entered Day-21 of its 21-Days nationwide lockdown period. According to news reports, government had taken a call to extension of lockdown period to 3 May 2020.

 Till 14 April 2020 India has reached to 10363 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 339 people died so far. Globally, 1,920,918 confirmed cases has been reported to the WHO and death toll reached to 1, 19,686.

            According to Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), 1 Sick person could infect up to 400 people in 30 days if there is no Lockdown. A lot of state government, as well as experts, are also requested to central government to extend the nationwide lockdown beyond April 14.

            However government had decided to extend lockdown further. Because of lockdown there are many problems raised in general public but on the other side impact of corona has been slow down.

            As the world battles the threat of the novel coronavirus, policymakers and researchers are frantically looking for ways to predict the virus's spread and effects. So far, novel coronavirus has proven to be too fast to be chased and contained. Countries have placed restrictions on movement on people with the hope that social distancing techniques will help contain the spread of the virus.

            Kerala government recommended a lockdown extension model to the center, comprising of 17 experts from various fields. This model had district-wise phasing of the COVID-19 lockdown over three stages. The expert committee assessed that the time is not yet ripe for full withdrawal of the lockdown on April 14.

            According to the report, any exit strategy would need to take into consideration the following key aspects at the national level and state level:

- The likely trajectory of the epidemic over the next few weeks /months
- The State’s capacity to build up an effective and responsive healthcare system to deal with the epidemic in a few weeks or months
- The actual impact on the economy and the financial system of the current total lockdown; and its continued extension by a few weeks/months; as well as its efficacy and above all sustainability
- The specific impact on the poorest and most vulnerable sections given that they are likely to bear a disproportionate part of the costs
- Financial capacity of the State to support the poorest sections; as well as the productive economic agents in the medium to long term in the event of continued total / partial lockdown.

THREE-PHASE RELAXATION OF LOCKDOWN (Kerala Model)

The committee recommended that the lockdown be relaxed district-wise in three phases starting from April 15.

Criteria for Phase I relaxation of lockdown:

1. A District will qualify for Phase 1 relaxation of restrictions only if it satisfies the following criteria:
There has been not more than ONE new case in that district for the entire week prior to the date of the review. (For the first review on April 14, 2020, the relevant period will be April 7-13, 2020)
There has been no increase more than 10% of the number of persons under home surveillance in that District (base as on April 7, 2020) as on the date of the review.
There are no hotspots of Covid-19 infection anywhere in the district as identified by the Health Department.

Criteria for Phase II relaxation of lockdown

2. A District will qualify for Phase II relaxation of restrictions at the time of the second review only if it satisfies the following criteria:
There has not been more than one new case of Covid-19 infection in that district the entire fortnight prior to the date of the review.
There has been not more than a 5 per cent increase in the number of persons under home surveillance in that District from the date of the previous review.
There are no Covid-19 infection hotspots in the district.

Criteria for Phase III relaxation of lockdown
3. A District will qualify for Phase IIII relaxation of restrictions at the time of the THIRD review only if it satisfies the following criteria:
There has been no new case of Covid-19 infection in that district for the fortnight prior to the date of review.
There has been a decrease of more than 5 per cent of the number of persons under home surveillance in that District from the date of the previous review.
There are no hotspots of Covid-19 infection anywhere in the district as identified by the Health Department.

Further they have added some general restriction till June 30^th.

1. All persons permitted to come outside their house have to compulsorily wear a mask. Local Self Governments should ensure that 3-layer clothe masks are made available for this purpose. This in view of the recommendations from the Office of the Principal Scientific Advisor to GOI vides Masks for Curbing of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus: March 30, 2020.

2. If weddings are to be held the people concerned should get permission from the local body and an undertaking should be given that the function will not be attended by more than the minimum of 25 or the limit specified depending on the stage of the phasing down. People should be encouraged through a focused Communication Campaign to donate the money saved to the Chief Minister’s Covid-19 Relief Fund. The gift can be publicized through the media to motivate others.

3. The epidemiological observations of the current global spread of Covid-19 are pointing to the fact that Covid-19 spread more rapidly in air-conditioned closed spaces. Hence, air conditioning in all work areas including office spaces, personal cars, and public transport should be disallowed. Air conditioners can be switched off unless medically necessary or needed for safe storage of perishable articles.

Bhilwara Model:

The containment strategy was found to be successful in bhilwara, and since then health officials in both Rajasthan and the Centre have been unofficially terming this specific containment plan as the “Bhilwara model”.

The Bhilwara COVID-19 containment “model” refers to the steps taken by the administration in Rajasthan’s Bhilwara district to contain the disease, after it emerged as a hotspot for coronavirus positive cases.

Bhilwara district was among the most-affected places in India during the first phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. As of Monday, Rajasthan had 274 confirmed cases of the disease.

The measures taken by the Rajasthan government include imposing a curfew in the district which also barred essential services, extensive screening and house-to-house surveys to check for possible cases, and detailed contact tracing of each positive case so as to create a dossier on everybody they met ever since they got infected.

The success of the model is attributed to the fact that Bhilwara, which was the first district in Rajasthan to report most number of coronavirus cases, has now reported only one positive case since March 30.

This is considered as a major success for the government and the district administration as within the first four days of the initial outbreak, the number of cases shot up to 13 and by March 30, the district had seen a total of 26 cases in 11 days.

Cambridge university model given by scholars of Indian origin:

            However, a new mathematical model created by two Cambridge University scholars of Indian origin, predicts that the current lockdown may not be enough to contain the novel coronavirus. The proposed model, devised by Rajesh Singh and R. Adhikari from the University of Cambridge's Centre for Mathematical Sciences, argues that India's unique social contact structure may cause the virus to behave differently here than in China (where the novel coronavirus originated) and Italy (the worst affected country).

            The mathematical model also calculates the duration and intervals of two other versions of lockdowns that can actually bring down the infection level to less than 50 people:

• Three consecutive lockdowns with the first one lasting 21 days, second 28 days and third one for 18 days, could work mathematically.
• The model suggests a five-day gap between each lockdown.
• This strategy could bring down the number of infections to less than 50 by mid-June.
• Another alternative suggests a 49-day nonstop lockdown.
• A 49-day lockdown could bring the number of infections down to less than 50 by mid-May.